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Written by Jason Macor
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Monday, 09 October 2006 |
Well, get your TV's ready because it starts tonight. #5 West Virginia's first real test comes tonight against a good Maryland team that could be a sleeper, but this is just a preview of what Saturday will hold.
With seven games pitting top 25 opponents against each other in one day, there's not just the possibility of a big shake-up when Sunday's rankings are revealed, it is assured. We'll start at the bottom and work our way to the top as far as importance is concerned, especially in the national title hunt.
Oddly enough I'm going to start with the 11-2 match-up. With so many other games on why choose such a seemingly important game if I just said I would go in order of least importance? It's because Michigan really doesn't stand a chance. They don't have a defense like Georgia Tech to keep Weis and his crew from scoring, and Notre Dames defense is just good enough this year to keep Michigan out of the end zone just enough to outscore the Wolverines. The ND secondary is actually decent this year, which means they can take some chances with blitzing corners and stacking the box to stop a very scary Michigan running game, averaging nearly 250 yards a game on the ground. Still and all this should be a great shoot out with ND coming out on top, probably ending somewhere in the third quarter.
Next up is the Nebraska-USC match-up. This is a slightly more important game because, although they were able to score on Arkansas, that is no true indication of whether or not this USC offense is truly back, and if it can compete under true pressure (as evidenced by Texas, who looked great against Northern Texas, but couldn't seem to find anything against an OSU defense replacing 9 starters). If USC struggles in the first and second quarters, look for a grind it out running game that will add up to a low final score, especially with the new clock rules. Although Nebraska has also not faced a decent opponent, they have the advantage of having faced two, and average over 50 points no less, with hints of the old Nebraska defense rearing it's ugly head. This game could be one of three things, USC's triumph and announcement that it is still there, Nebraska's coming back party, or proof that USC is not a freakish cesspool of never-ending talent.
With Oklahoma again being offensively challenged, this time having a running game but no QB, it's the perfect time for Oregon to come back into the Pac 10 picture and make USC sweat a bit since Joey left. If Oregon can find a way to slow down Adrian (is there a way to stop this guy?) then Oregon can vault itself into the top 15 and make Nov. 11th a day to mark on your colander (their match-up against USC). Oklahoma looks weak, and if Oregon can pull of the upset, I wouldn't be surprised to move up 4-5 spots, especially with so many teams ahead also playing in big games.
Miami and Louisville among them. This is a very important game for both teams, with the same meaning attached to it. We're still here! Miami needs to win this game to avoid dropping out of the top 25 and securing Larry Cookers job. Louisville is still looking for that big win to announce their arrival. They almost had it last year against West Virginia, but let the game slip out of their hands. Miami is 9-0-1 against Louisville all time, but are looking to change that. The question is, can they do it? They have the offense to do, averaging over 60 points per game, but will it be able to stand up against a Miami defense that has allowed only 11.5 points per game, and 200.6 yards a game? This game will be a battle of wills, and whoever scores first will probably win, Miami giving confidence to it's offense again, or Louisville showing just how good their offense is against a real defense.
You've probably been wondering why I haven't mentioned the Texas Tech-TCU game yet, even though they are the two lowest ranked teams playing each other Saturday. That is because this game holds just as many, if not more, implications for TCU especially. With the new rules TCU would have been in a BCS bowl last year, along with getting the big bonus that comes with playing in said BCS game. With another undefeated season they could be knocking again, and this time someone will answer. With Texas Tech being the only real hurdle for TCU, the Horned Frogs could be looking at extending their NCAA leading to 13 with a win, possibly all the way to 22 as they face no worthy opponent past that.
Now for the two biggest games, and surprise they are two big SEC match-ups. As I said in my Blur article, I believe the SEC to be both the best and deepest conference, and we're already seeing how this can be a disadvantage. With three top ten teams putting their spot on the line, these could be the biggest games in SEC history. For Tennessee, this is a last gasp, the chance to prove they are truly back, and that last Saturday's performance was indeed just a look ahead to this weekend. For Florida it will be a test of everything. Is Leek the right quarterback? Should Urban be making more of an effort, for this year at least, to accommodate his offense for Leek, similar to what Texas did for Vince Young? Florida also has many unanswered questions and must win this game to silence all the critics, and garner some confidence with the meat of their schedule coming up only one week after a breather with Kentucky. After that it's hell, battle, war, any word you can think of, because they have Alabama and #6 LSU at home, then travel to face #3 Auburn, only to come home with Georgia waiting for them.
Of far greater National Title importance is the #3-#6 match-up of Auburn and LSU. LSU is still trying to prove last year just a fluke of emotions and facing a dejected Miami team, and that they should be getting real National Title consideration. A win over Auburn could do this. Auburn on the other hand is hoping a few big SEC wins will be enough this year to vault them into the National Title game, after being snubbed a few years ago by virtue of not starting near the top, even though they faced a far tougher schedule then that which USC faced in the Pac 10. The SEC, this year, is making a name for themselves defensively, with even the losers holding the score, most times, under 20 points, but usually being shut out themselves (like Georgia's 18-0 win over South Carolina). Although both teams are averaging close to or over 40 points per game, don't look for the teams to get 40 points combined. This game will be a test of wills, better then any NFL game could produce. It won't be ugly like the Miami-FSU game, but rather a hard-hitting exciting affair, with big plays, but even bigger stops. One might even want to TiVo this for future enjoyment.
So there you have it, the biggest weekend of college football in years, and now you know which one's to truly keep an eye on, as an added bonus, here are my predictions for each game:
Maryland-20
West Virginia-19
Notre Dame-35
Michigan-15
USC-20
Nebraska-19
Oregon-30
Oklahoma-18
Miami-35
Louisville-34
Texas Tech- 25
TCU-23
Florida-28
Tennessee-24
Auburn-15
LSU-10
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Last Updated ( Thursday, 12 April 2007 )
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