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Miami@Louisville Prediction |
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Written by Jason Macor
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Monday, 09 October 2006 |
 Well, the rest is over, and the dust has been shaken off. With a great tune up game against FAMU, Miami once again has to enter the fire, and this time on the road. With some experience under their belt now, the offense should be a bit more prepared, and it doesn't hurt that the Louisville defense has got nothing on FSU. The offense, on the other hand, is straight up scary.
Averaging 60.2 points per game, and over 600 yards a game, there is reason to fear Louisville. The problem is, this came against Kentucky and Temple, not exactly teams one would call a challenge. Still and all, it's 60 points and 600 yards, most teams average between 40-50 points against lesser opponents, so Louisville is ahead of the game. On the flip side though, you have Miami's defense, which again amoung the top 10, and probably top 5, in the nation. They've allowed 11.5 points per game, and just over 200 yards (and I mean just, as in decimal point just). Thus far the defense has allowed a ridiculous 83 yards rushing...not a game, total yards. Although Louisville has a very talented quarterback in Brian Brohm, and some fine receivers in Harry Douglas, and Mario Urrutia, they will be facing one of the best second Aires in college football, and actually rely heavily on balance.
If Louisville is unable to figure out a way to run the ball, they're going to be in big trouble. Although the high scores, and shorter games, would indicate a high powered passing attack, similar to the Hurricanes of '01 where the average scoring drive was under 2 minutes, the Cardinals actually have more rushing yards a game, 337.5, then passing 313.5. They require the balance, to assist each other, the running game needs the DB's and LB's to stay true to the passing game, and the passing needs men in the box to get the long ball, keep the defense on it's heels. If Louisville is unable to run the ball, will Brian Brohm, thus far untested, be able to carry the team on his shoulders?
The other side is a less exciting match-up, and more based on luck then anything else. If Miami can pick a scoring drive, something 50 yards or more, on their first drive, that should give them just enough confidence to pull this game out. On their first drive they had a three and out, that led to a shanked punt, on which FSU got what would eventually be the game winning field goal. If Miami's offense can come out strong and have Kyle Wright pass the ball against a very weak Louisville secondary, who is giving up 250 yards average, again against Kentucky and Temple, then this could end up be less of a nail biter then most expect. Kyle Wright is a great quarterback, but he is still young, and will be hurt if the first couple drives end with nothing, or if he loses the lead. With a lead, even of seven points or less, Kyle Wright is going to have more confidence, and play with a clearer head.
With all that said, this WILL be a close game, and Louisville WILL be able to score against this UM defense, they're just too good to be denied. The problem, in the end, will be Louisville’s defense, and their inability to stop any offense the isn't Temple. They, like Notre Dame, will find out that you can't outscore everybody, and when you face a defense that can stop you once or twice, that will be just enough to pull the game out. Lastly, there is the it factor, the one stat in every game that has nothing to with the teams on the field other then history, Miami has won it's last 5 games where it was the underdog, they are a 4.5 point underdog in this game. Final prediction:
Miami-35
Louisville-34
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Last Updated ( Thursday, 12 April 2007 )
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